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• W3134268445 abstract "EnglishThe cities' migration process, leveraged by the rural exodus, contributed to the triggering of infrastructure problems, basic sanitation, occupation of susceptible areas, among others. In this sense, the proper planning of cities is fundamental to overcome the challenges faced by these urban agglomerations. Given these considerations, this paper aims to determine scenarios of the urban expansion of the city of Novo Hamburgo - RS, from 2015 to 2030. The modeling of Cellular Automata, within the Dynamic EGO software, was applied to analyze the viability of these scenarios concerning areas susceptible to flooding and mass movements in the city. Therefore, the urban spots of 2009 and 2015 were used to calibrate the weights and parameters of the variables used: distance from vegetation areas, distance from the drainage system, distance from the road system, altitude, and declivity. Based on the results, the construction of four future prognostic scenarios (2030), were built and then crossed with the susceptibility charts of the Geological Survey of Brazil, in order to identify the expansion against areas susceptible to flooding and mass movements. The results of the 2015 simulation reached similarity values of 0.80. Future scenarios showed a total growth of 3.9% in the study area, mainly concentrated in rural areas, through the expansion of existing spots and the formation of new nuclei. The urban territory composed of medium and high density, and the adjacent areas unfit for occupation, did not allow large expansions of the main urban area, but subtle growth to the south towards the flood areas near the Sinos River is visible; in the northern region, where the terrain reaches high slopes and in the west where a region of wetlands is concentrated. Crossing with susceptibility charts expressed that 7% of predicted expansion areas will occur in areas characterized as highly susceptible to flooding or mass movement. Thus, planning and supervision are the main tools for defining guidelines for an appropriate urbanization process. portuguesO processo migratorio para as cidades, alavancado pelo exodo rural contribuiu para o desencadeamento de problemas de infraestrutura, saneamento basico, ocupacao de areas susceptiveis, entre outros. Nesse sentido, o adequado planejamento das cidades e fundamental para superar os desafios enfrentados por essas aglomeracoes urbanas. Perante essas consideracoes, objetivou-se determinar cenarios da expansao urbana da cidade de Novo Hamburgo – RS, no periodo de 2015 – 2030. Almejando analisar a viabilidade desses cenarios frente as areas susceptiveis a inundacoes e movimentos de massa no municipio, aplicou-se a modelagem de Automatos Celulares, dentro do software Dinâmica EGO. Para tanto foram utilizadas as manchas urbanas de 2009 e 2015, afim de calibrar os pesos e parâmetros das variaveis utilizadas: distância das areas de vegetacao, distância da rede de drenagem, distância do sistema viario, altitude e declividade. Com base nos resultados se procedeu a construcao de quatro cenarios de prognosticos futuros (2030), os quais foram cruzados com as cartas de susceptibilidade do Servico Geologico do Brasil, afim de identificar a expansao frente as areas susceptiveis a inundacoes e movimentos de massa. Os resultados da simulacao de 2015 alcancaram valores de similaridade de 0,80. Os cenarios futuros apresentaram um crescimento total de 3,9 % da area de estudo, concentrado principalmente nas areas rurais, atraves da expansao das manchas existentes e da formacao de novos nucleos. O territorio urbano composto por densidade media e alta e as areas adjacentes improprias para a ocupacao, nao possibilitaram grandes expansoes da mancha urbana principal, porem e visivel um crescimento sutil ao sul em direcao as areas de inundacoes, proximas ao Rio do Sinos; na regiao norte, onde o terreno alcanca altas declividades e a oeste onde se concentra uma regiao de areas umidas. O cruzamento com as cartas de susceptibilidade expressou que 7% das areas de expansao previstas no prognostico ocorrerao em areas caracterizadas como de alta susceptibilidade a inundacoes ou movimentos de massa. Assim sendo, o planejamento e a fiscalizacao sao as principais ferramentas para definir diretrizes para um adequado processo de urbanizacao." @default.
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• W3134268445 date "2021-01-01" @default.
• W3134268445 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
• W3134268445 title "Future Scenarios: Analysis of Susceptible Areas to Floods and Mass Movements" @default.
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