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• W3136228321 abstract "We propose a real-time approximation of R0 in an SIR-type model that applies to the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak. A very useful direct formula expressing R0 is found. Then, various type of models are considered, namely, finite differences, cubic splines, Piecewise Cubic Hermite interpolation and linear least squares approximation. Preserving the monotonicity of the formula under consideration proves to be of crucial importance. This latter property is preferred over accuracy, since it maintains positive R0. Only the Linear Least Squares technique guarantees this, and is finally proposed here. Tests on real COVID-19 data confirm the usefulness of our approach." @default.
• W3136228321 created "2021-03-29" @default.
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• W3136228321 date "2021-03-20" @default.
• W3136228321 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
• W3136228321 title "Real-Time Estimation of R0 for COVID-19 Spread" @default.
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• W3136228321 doi "https://doi.org/10.3390/math9060664" @default.
• W3136228321 hasPublicationYear "2021" @default.
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