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• W3136233665 abstract "The first year of college may carry especially high risk for onset of alcohol use disorders. We assessed the one-year incidence of alcohol use disorders (AUD) among incoming first-year students, predictors of AUD-incidence, prediction accuracy and population impact. A prospective cohort study of first-year college students (baseline: N = 5843; response rate = 51.8%; 1-year follow-up: n = 1959; conditional response rate = 41.6%) at a large university in Belgium was conducted. AUD were evaluated with the AUDIT and baseline predictors with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview Screening Scales (CIDI-SC). The one-year incidence of AUD was 3.9% (SE = 0.4). The most important individual-level baseline predictors of AUD incidence were being male (OR = 1.53; 95% CI = 1.12–2.10), a break-up with a romantic partner (OR = 1.67; 95% CI = 1.08–2.59), hazardous drinking (OR = 3.36; 95% CI = 1.31–8.63), and alcohol use characteristics at baseline (ORs between 1.29 and 1.38). Multivariate cross-validated prediction (cross-validated AUC = 0.887) shows that 55.5% of incident AUD cases occurred among the 10% of students at highest predicted risk (20.1% predicted incidence in this highest-risk subgroup). Four out of five students with incident AUD would hypothetically be preventable if baseline hazardous drinking was to be eliminated along with a reduction of one standard deviation in alcohol use characteristics scores, and another 15.0% would potentially be preventable if all 12-month stressful events were eliminated. Screening at college entrance is a promising strategy to identify students at risk of transitioning to more problematic drinking and AUD, thus improving the development and deployment of targeted preventive interventions." @default.
• W3136233665 created "2021-03-29" @default.
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• W3136233665 date "2021-03-16" @default.
• W3136233665 modified "2023-10-16" @default.
• W3136233665 title "A risk algorithm that predicts alcohol use disorders among college students" @default.
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• W3136233665 doi "https://doi.org/10.1007/s00787-020-01712-3" @default.
• W3136233665 hasPubMedId "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33723648" @default.
• W3136233665 hasPublicationYear "2021" @default.
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