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• W3140271063 abstract "As with the 1990s, the 2000s are proving to be a fruitful time for those involved in the project of developing of financial crisis in developing economies. Indeed, the occurrence of a financial crisis in the previous eighteen months seems a rather reliable predictor of the development of new predictors! Neoclassical economists have sought to develop reliable of currency, banking and generalized financial crises following the European currency crisis of 1992-93, the Mexican financial crisis of 1994-95, and the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98 [Berg and Pattillo, 1998; Edison, 2000; Frankel and Rose, 1996; Goldstein, 1997a, 1997b; Hardy and Pazarbasioglu, 1998; Kamin and Babson, 1999; Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart, 1997; Kaminsky and Reinhart, 2000; Sachs, Tornell, Velasco, 1996]. x The most ambitious of these efforts involves drawing together several crisis to create warning systems that can be employed by policymakers, regulators and investors (the gold standard of such efforts is Goldstein, Kaminsky, Reinhart [2000]). Unfortunately, the empirical record of crisis is rather poor. Predictors developed after the European currency crisis failed to predict the events in Mexico, developed after the Mexican crisis failed to predict the Asian crisis, and developed after the Asian crisis failed to predict the 2001 Turkish crisis [Corbett and Vines, 1998; Eichengreen, 1999; Sharma, 1999]. The current crisis in Argentina was also not predicted by existing models.2 Additionally, counterfactual tests indicate that existing would not have predicted the very crises that motivated their development [Berg and Pattillo, 1998; DemirguQ-Kunt and Detragiache, 1999; Eichengreen and Portes, 1997; Goldfajn and Valdes, 1997; Hardy and Pazarbasioglu, 1998]. Undaunted by empirical failure, however, the effort to discover reliable crisis (hereinafter, the neoclassical predictors project) continues. So sure are neoclassical economists that a reasonable set of can be developed that a great deal of intellectual capital is being expended in efforts to design an early warning system that will predict the next big financial crisis. This paper critically examines the neoclassical project on both empirical and theoretical grounds. The paper argues that these indicators perform poorly on empirical grounds and also rejects them on theoretical grounds. From a postKeynesian perspective advanced notably by Minsky (among others), there is no rea-" @default.
• W3140271063 created "2021-04-13" @default.
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• W3140271063 date "2016-01-01" @default.
• W3140271063 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W3140271063 title "PREDICTING FINANCIAL CRISIS IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES: ASTRONOMY OR ASTROLOGY?" @default.
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