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- W3143670443 abstract "在长江山谷(YRV ) 上的夏天降雨的季节的预言在中国为农业、工业的生产和淡水资源管理是珍贵的，但是仍然是主要挑战。为在中国上的夏天降雨的更早的多模型整体(MME ) 预言计划集中于单个值的预言，它不能提供必要无常信息，当使用得通常的整体策划时因为概率密度功能(PDF ) 预言没被使适应 YRV 夏天降雨预言。在现在的学习，一个 MME PDF 预言计划基于整体 hindcasts 被建议。它类似于更早贝叶斯的整体预言计划，但是与整体的优化，成员和可能性的当模特儿的变化的修订工作。优化整体成员是 regressed YRV 夏天降雨，因素作为预言者从同步 500-hPa geopotential 高度的模型产量选择了。可能性的功能当模特儿的修订变化作为预言者是有整体传播的简单线性回归。19602002 YRV 夏天降雨预言的交叉验证技巧证明新计划生产熟练 PDF 预言，并且比更早贝叶斯的整体和未加工的整体更好校准、更锋利、更精确。" @default.
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- W3143670443 date "2015-01-01" @default.
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- W3143670443 title "Improving Multi-model Ensemble Probabilistic Prediction of Yangtze River Valley Summer Rainfall" @default.
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