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- W314406902 abstract "The paper develops a simple method that can be used to test for a time-varying intercept and to approximate its form. The method uses a Fourier approximation to capture any variation in the intercept term. As such, the issue becomes one of deciding which frequencies to include in the approximation. The test has good power to detect multiple structural breaks. Perhaps the most important point is that successive applications of the test can be used to ‘back-out’ the form of the time-varying intercept. A number of diagnostic tests indicate that a linear autoregressive model of the U.S. inflation rate (as measured by the CPI) is inappropriate. It is shown that our methodology is capable of ‘backing-out’ the form of the nonlinearity. We also explored the nature of the approximation using an extended example concerning the demand for M3. Using quarterly U.S. data over the 1959:1–2004:2 period, we confirmed the standard result that the demand for money is not a stable linear function of real income, the price level and a short-term interest rate. The incorporation of the time-varying intercept resulting from the Fourier approximation appears to result in a stable money demand function. The form of the intercept term suggests a fairly steady growth rate in the demand for M3 until late-1987. At that point, there was a sharp and sustained drop in demand. Money demand continued to decline until mid-1995 and then resumed its upward trend. The implied error-correction model appears to be reasonable in that money and the price level (but neither income nor the interest rate) adjust to eliminate any discrepancy in money demand." @default.
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- W314406902 date "2006-01-01" @default.
- W314406902 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W314406902 title "Chapter 9 Modeling Inflation and Money Demand Using a Fourier-Series Approximation" @default.
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- W314406902 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/s0573-8555(05)76009-0" @default.
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