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- W3146035397 abstract "Staring at the U.S. recession of 2008-10 and at the euro crisis of 2010-12, it is tempting to look for common features. In both Los Angeles and Madrid, house prices more than doubled between 2000 and 2008, and household debt increased in tandem. Both in the United States and in southern Europe, total public debt reached historical levels, and during the two crises, yields on state debt increased remarkably as did the price of credit default swaps insuring against default. A story of the crises across the two sides of the Atlantic that is based on leverage and debt is both appealing and superficially correct. However, a closer look at the data in the two regions leaves too many questions open. The increase in house prices was not uniform across Europe (or the United States), with large movements in Ireland and Spain, but relative stagnation in Portugal and Italy, and only moderate increases in Greece, yet all of these regions went through a sovereign debt crisis. The increase in public debt was at the federal level in the United States (while at the state level in Europe), yet the American sovereign debt problems happened exclusively in a few states, California and Michigan more noticeably. Arellano et al. (2015), henceforth AAW, add a further comparison that makes a simplistic leverage story even harder to take at face value. Look at Canada. House prices also almost doubled in the first decade of the XXIst century, and private leverage followed suit. But prices have neither fallen (at least ∗Contact: rreis@columbia.edu. I am grateful to Cynthia Balloch, Keshav Dogra and Savi Sundaresan for useful discussions." @default.
- W3146035397 created "2021-04-13" @default.
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- W3146035397 date "2015-01-01" @default.
- W3146035397 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W3146035397 title "Comment on External and Public Debt Crises" @default.
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