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- W3146087117 abstract "ular direction, perhaps something of a caricature, but taken as a group they mark out the limits within which the future is likely to lie. The real future will therefore probably lie between these extremes, having some characteristics of each. The large differences between these four scenarios, all of which are plausible, may be shown by one example, the level of drug use in these alternative futures. The figure shows drug use expressed in terms of volume and monetary value compared with that in 1990. The estimated volume of drug use in the year 2005 ranges from 54 (risk avoidance) to 239 (free market unfettered), while the monetary value of drug use ranges from 100 (risk avoidance) to 418 (tech? nology on demand). The scenarios are intended to confront key players in the drug business with possibilities that they have not foreseen. Policy makers may find it useful for showing the limits within which they can influence change and the factors which have to be taken into account. They will be able to consider the future role of the various key players?including prescribes, pharmaceutical researchers, and suppliers of over the counter medi cines?against these various alternative backgrounds. Used methodically and creatively, scenario analysis can be a teaching device and a powerful technique for adjusting preconceptions in laying a basis for com? munity policies well into the 21 st century." @default.
- W3146087117 created "2021-04-13" @default.
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- W3146087117 date "2016-01-01" @default.
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- W3146087117 title "The profession of medicine" @default.
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