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- W316441750 abstract "The paper by Henri Bogaert focuses on Belgian budgetary prospects. It presents the Maltese model developed by the Federal Planning Bureau in order to evaluate alternative pension reforms in a broader budgetary context. The model includes a number of interdependent sub-models linking demography to the budget and to deficit and debt dynamics. The paper evaluates the effects of ageing on future primary surpluses in a constant-policy scenario. It computes the level of the “minimal sustainable primary surplus”, which is the primary surplus of the non-age-related budgetary items, which, if reached immediately and maintained constant, verifies the intertemporal budget constraint. Bogaert notes that the Stability and Growth Pact implies a different approach to ensuring sustainability. The Pact recommends a balanced budget over the cycle. Such a strategy leads to a primary surplus whose level depends on the debt to GDP ratio. As the latter tends asymptotically to zero, the primary surplus required by the Pact gradually declines. In the case of Belgium, the Pact requires a surplus which is initially higher than the minimal sustainable surplus, the ensuing fast reduction of the debt in the period 2000-2010, when the ageing problem is not yet very acute, will compensate later for the costs of ageing." @default.
- W316441750 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W316441750 date "2000-01-01" @default.
- W316441750 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W316441750 title "Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability in Belgium" @default.
- W316441750 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2109445" @default.
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