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- W3166151359 abstract "EnglishIn order to achieve sustainable management of estuaries it is fundamental to have a better understanding of behaviour of estuarine systems to both natural and anthropogenic forcing. This paper focuses on impacts on intertidal zone habitats of the Guadiana estuary due to sea-level rise during the 21st century. Assessment of impacts was carried out by simulating the morphological evolution due to sea-level rise during this century using a behaviour-oriented modelling approach. The model was approximately validated by analysing the comparability of the present-day bathymetry with that of simulated bathymetries that are reconstructed based on paleovalley of 11500 Cal BP years. Decadal-timescale forecasting of morphological evolution was based on an improved IPCC’s projections for sea-level rise and local sedimentation scenarios for the 21st century in the Guadiana estuary. According to results, if adaptation capacity of existing habitats is less for their lateral translation with the sea-level rise, the land area available for low and mid marsh habitats in the estuarine system will be at high risk of disappearing in response to the worst-case accelerated sea-level rise and sedimentation scenarios. EnglishCon el fin de lograr una gestion sostenible de los sistemas estuarinos es fundamental tener una mejor comprension del comportamiento de dichos sistemas frente a las presiones naturales y antropogenicas. Este articulo se centra en los impactos derivados de la subida del nivel del mar durante el siglo 21 sobre los habitats de la zona intermareal en el Estuario del Guadiana. La evaluacion de dichos impactos se llevo a cabo mediante un modelo de aproximacion del comportamiento simulando la evolucion morfologica del estuario debida al ascenso del nivel del mar durante este siglo. El modelo fue validado mediante comparacion de la batimetria actual con las batimetrias simuladas reconstruidas a partir del paleovalle existente hace 11500 anos cal BP. La prediccion de la evolucion morfologica decenal se realizo en base a proyecciones IPCC mejoradas tanto del ascenso del nivel del mar como de los escenarios locales de sedimentacion en el estuario del Guadiana durante el siglo 21. De acuerdo con los resultados obtenidos para el peor de los escenarios de ascenso del nivel del mar y acusada sedimentacion, si la capacidad de adaptacion de los habitats es menor que su desplazamiento lateral, y dado que el area de terreno disponible para las zonas de marismas baja y media tiende a ser inundada, dichas habitats estaran en alto riesgo de desaparecer." @default.
- W3166151359 created "2021-06-22" @default.
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- W3166151359 date "2013-01-01" @default.
- W3166151359 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
- W3166151359 title "Assessment of Impacts on Intertidal zone Habitats of the Guadiana Estuary due to Sea-level Rise during the 21st century" @default.
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