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- W3166757769 abstract "Abstract The shrinking of Arctic-wide September sea ice extent is often cited as an indicator of modern climate change; however, the timing of seasonal sea ice retreat/advance and the length of the open-water period are often more relevant to stakeholders working at regional and local scales. Here we highlight changes in regional open-water periods at multiple warming thresholds. We show that, in the latest generation of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the open-water period lengthens by 63 days on average with 2 °C of global warming above the 1850-1900 average, and by over 90 days in several Arctic seas. Nearly the entire Arctic, including the Transpolar Sea Route, has at least 3 months of open water per year with 3.5 °C warming, and at least 6 months with 5 °C warming. Model bias compared to satellite data suggests that even such dramatic projections may be conservative." @default.
- W3166757769 created "2021-06-22" @default.
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- W3166757769 date "2021-06-03" @default.
- W3166757769 modified "2023-10-16" @default.
- W3166757769 title "Arctic open-water periods are projected to lengthen dramatically by 2100" @default.
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- W3166757769 doi "https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00183-x" @default.
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