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- W3173077615 abstract "We employ the WTO Global Trade Model (GTM) to generate quantitative projections on the expected long-run impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global trade patterns. We examine two main channels: the acceleration of the introduction of new technologies and the asymmetric impact on different sectors and regions because of the nature of the COVID-19 pandemic and differences in policies. Five trends in new technologies are expected to impact the economy in general and trade flows in particular and we explore how COVID-19 will accelerate these trends: (i) robotization leading to a reallocation of tasks between labor and capital; (ii) servicification of the production process; (iii) digitalization leading to falling trade costs; (iv) the shift to online sales (e-commerce); (v) the reduced importance of face-to-face interaction. The asymmetric impact on regions is explored by comparing pre-COVID-19 macroeconomic projections from the IMF with projections taking COVID-19 into account." @default.
- W3173077615 created "2021-06-22" @default.
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- W3173077615 date "2021-04-12" @default.
- W3173077615 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W3173077615 title "COVID-19 and long-run trade patterns. Asymmetric impact across regions and sectors and acceleration of the introduction of new technologies" @default.
- W3173077615 hasPublicationYear "2021" @default.
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