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- W3176304485 abstract "We propose a Release-Augmented Dynamic Factor Model (RA-DFM) that allows to quantify the role of a country’s data flow in nowcasting both early GDP releases, and subsequent revisions of official estimates. We use the RA-DFM to study UK GDP early revision rounds, and assemble a comprehensive and novel mixed-frequency dataset that features over 10 years of real-time data vintages. The RA-DFM improves over the standard DFM in real-time when forecasting the first release each quarter, and economic and survey data help forecasting the first revision round. Afterwards, the predictive content of the data flow is largely exhausted." @default.
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- W3176304485 date "2018-01-01" @default.
- W3176304485 modified "2023-10-16" @default.
- W3176304485 title "Uncertain Kingdom: Nowcasting GDP and its Revisions" @default.
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- W3176304485 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3278618" @default.
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