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• W3180586786 abstract "In the current context of perceptible climate change, this thesis work mainly aims to assess theimpact of these climate changes on water resources, at the level of irrigated perimeters of Loukkosand Gharb in northern Morocco. These perimeters are characterized by an oceanic-influenced Mediterraneanclimate and present significant agricultural activity. Therefore, the available water resourcesin this study region are used for irrigation to a large extent. To achieve this goal, the methodologyadopted in this research work was based on remote sensing, statistics, and modeling methods and tools.In order to generate and analyse the physical parameters of the study areas (Particulary, DEM andland use), the optical and radar satellite images (with a resolution of 30 m, Aster (2011) and Landsat(1984-1985, 2001-2002, 2015-2016 and 2016-2017) covering both perimeters were subjected to a set ofpre-processing and processing. This treatment process was, moreover, automated in this thesis work usingthe Web2TISat application, thus facilitating the images use in future. Random forest classificationprovided better accuracy with a kappa index exceeding 0.95 and an overall accuracy exceeding 96%.Comparison and spatial overlay of multi-date optical (Landsat, 30 m) images covering both perimetersshowed substantial spatial changes in land use and ground cover at both perimeters over the last 30years with variations from -52.78% to 292.29% over the period 1981 to 2016. The change results showthat, for both perimeters, the areas of agricultural land cover, building & infrastructure, water andforests have increased at expense of bare land and vegetation, which have experienced a dramatic loss.Moving to fine resolution (10m) could improve crop classification at three different levels.The statistical study of climate data from eight meteorological stations over the period rangingfrom 1981 to 2016 allowed us to track the spatial and temporal evolution of some climate indicators(Precipitation, Temperature and Evapotranspiration). These data, however, reveal sometimes gapsand irregularities that hinder their direct analysis. For this purpose, these data sometimes requiredpre-processing using imputation methods (MICE or k-NN). Furthermore, changes or breaks have beendetected in the past in time series of these climate variables and validated by statistical tests. Fortrends, temperature et potential evapotranspiration series showed significant upward trends in all timesteps. While for precipitation series, the trends were non-significant. Projections for the period of2021-2050, predict a temperature increase ranging from 1.7 °C in autumn to 1.9 °C in summer. Aswell as a notable reduction in precipitation reaching 15% in winter and 10% in summer. However, anincrease in precipitation with 10% would be observed in spring in comparison with reference period(1981-2016), which could considerably affect water resources in these perimeters. We have automatedall statistical processing in this work through the WebTDClim application.In addition, the 2CAFDYM cellular automaton model, having as input data the physical parametersof both perimeters, the climatic parameters and by referring to climatic scenarios (reference andprojected: optimistic and pessimistic) was used and by adapting it to study areas specificities (suchas the large surface area: 8708 km2 divided into 9675555 cells). The results of the model show that,on a spatial scale, the water resources availability would be impacted slightly differently depending onthe area. For groundwater, Gharb perimeter would be more affected than of Loukkos perimeter fromNovember to August for the two projected scenarios and the reverse would occur for the months ofSeptember and October. The decrease would reach 15.96% for Gharb and 10.94% for Loukkos. Forsurface water, the results of the simulations indicate, on an annual scale, a decrease ranging from 0.75%to 33.65%, depending on the scenarios and the perimeters. Overall, on a seasonal scale, the simulationsfor 2050 foresee a slight shift of the wettest season of hydrological year and predict a future thatdeserves a model of sustainable water resource management and an adaptation of farming practices." @default.
• W3180586786 created "2021-07-19" @default.
• W3180586786 creator A5076385003 @default.
• W3180586786 date "2020-09-05" @default.
• W3180586786 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W3180586786 title "Modeling and remote sensing contributions in the study of climate change impact on water resources:Application to irrigated perimeters of Loukkos and Gharb (Morocco)" @default.
• W3180586786 hasPublicationYear "2020" @default.
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