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- W3184331317 abstract "Persistent organ failure (POF) increases the risk of death in patients with acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP). Currently, there is no early risk assessment tool for POF in patients with ABP.To establish and validate a dynamic nomogram for predicting the risk of POF in ABP.This was a retrospective study of 792 patients with ABP, with 595 cases in the development group and 197 cases in the validation group. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression screened the predictors of POF, and logistic regression established the model (P < 0.05). A dynamic nomogram showed the model. We evaluated the model's discrimination, calibration, and clinical effectiveness; used the bootstrap method for internal validation; and conducted external validation in the validation group.Neutrophils, haematocrit, serum calcium, and blood urea nitrogen were predictors of POF in ABP. In the development group and validation group, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) were 0.875 and 0.854, respectively, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P > 0.05) and calibration curve showed good consistency between the actual and prediction probability. Decision curve analysis showed that the dynamic nomogram has excellent clinical value.This dynamic nomogram helps with the early identification and screening of high-risk patients with POF in ABP." @default.
- W3184331317 created "2021-08-02" @default.
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- W3184331317 date "2021-07-01" @default.
- W3184331317 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W3184331317 title "Dynamic nomogram for persistent organ failure in acute biliary pancreatitis: Development and validation in a retrospective study" @default.
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- W3184331317 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dld.2021.06.033" @default.
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