FRINK Linked Data Fragments server

Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W3186165082> ?p ?o ?g. }

• W3186165082 abstract "Abstract Projections of future global mean surface warming for a given forcing scenario remain uncertain, largely due to uncertainty in the climate sensitivity. The ensemble of Earth system models from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) represents the dominant tools for projecting future global warming. However, the distribution of climate sensitivities within the CMIP6 ensemble is not representative of recent independent probabilistic estimates, and the ensemble contains significant variation in simulated historic surface warming outside agreement with observational datasets. Here, a Bayesian approach is used to infer joint probabilistic projections of future surface warming and climate sensitivity for shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The projections use an efficient climate model ensemble filtered and weighted to encapsulate observational uncertainty in historic warming and ocean heat content anomalies. The probabilistic projection of climate sensitivity produces a best estimate of 2.9°C, and 5th–95th percentile range of 1.5–4.6°C, in line with previous estimates using multiple lines of evidence. The joint projection of surface warming over the period 2030–40 has a 50% or greater probability of exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial for all SSPs considered: 119, 126, 245, 370 and 585. Average warming by the period 2050–60 has a &gt;50% chance of exceeding 2°C for SSPs 245, 370 and 585. These results imply that global warming is no longer likely to remain under 1.5°C, even with drastic and immediate mitigation, and highlight the importance of urgent action to avoid exceeding 2°C warming." @default.
• W3186165082 created "2021-08-02" @default.
• W3186165082 creator A5051949726 @default.
• W3186165082 date "2021-01-01" @default.
• W3186165082 modified "2023-10-12" @default.
• W3186165082 title "Probabilistic projections of future warming and climate sensitivity trajectories" @default.
• W3186165082 cites W1507632156 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2028397896 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2082136692 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2114252528 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2126933442 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2136736608 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2141748334 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2162901362 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2168699591 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2193503481 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2285143095 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2295062446 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2337225114 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2337399347 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2495412896 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2579998230 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2594584909 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2619220565 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2751847990 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2780318220 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2784008656 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2793705078 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2890631445 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2920897755 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2946160190 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2952678807 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2980047943 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W2998500935 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W3004670348 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W3010860482 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W3022191888 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W3044698812 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W3047445461 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W3072187604 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W3093432062 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W3093906176 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W3095066576 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W3112414201 @default.
• W3186165082 cites W4213327538 @default.
• W3186165082 doi "https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfclm/kgab007" @default.
• W3186165082 hasPublicationYear "2021" @default.
• W3186165082 type Work @default.
• W3186165082 sameAs 3186165082 @default.
• W3186165082 citedByCount "3" @default.
• W3186165082 countsByYear W31861650822022 @default.
• W3186165082 countsByYear W31861650822023 @default.
• W3186165082 crossrefType "journal-article" @default.
• W3186165082 hasAuthorship W3186165082A5051949726 @default.
• W3186165082 hasBestOaLocation W31861650821 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConcept C105795698 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConcept C111368507 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConcept C115343472 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConcept C127313418 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConcept C132651083 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConcept C168754636 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConcept C197115733 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConcept C25022447 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConcept C33923547 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConcept C39432304 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConcept C49204034 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConcept C49937458 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConcept C54464151 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConceptScore W3186165082C105795698 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConceptScore W3186165082C111368507 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConceptScore W3186165082C115343472 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConceptScore W3186165082C127313418 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConceptScore W3186165082C132651083 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConceptScore W3186165082C168754636 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConceptScore W3186165082C197115733 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConceptScore W3186165082C25022447 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConceptScore W3186165082C33923547 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConceptScore W3186165082C39432304 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConceptScore W3186165082C49204034 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConceptScore W3186165082C49937458 @default.
• W3186165082 hasConceptScore W3186165082C54464151 @default.
• W3186165082 hasIssue "1" @default.
• W3186165082 hasLocation W31861650821 @default.
• W3186165082 hasLocation W31861650822 @default.
• W3186165082 hasLocation W31861650823 @default.
• W3186165082 hasOpenAccess W3186165082 @default.
• W3186165082 hasPrimaryLocation W31861650821 @default.
• W3186165082 hasRelatedWork W1753955002 @default.
• W3186165082 hasRelatedWork W2010299046 @default.
• W3186165082 hasRelatedWork W2077042386 @default.
• W3186165082 hasRelatedWork W2077319033 @default.
• W3186165082 hasRelatedWork W2751847990 @default.
• W3186165082 hasRelatedWork W2786443773 @default.
• W3186165082 hasRelatedWork W2897415266 @default.
• W3186165082 hasRelatedWork W3016376905 @default.
• W3186165082 hasRelatedWork W3040695841 @default.
• W3186165082 hasRelatedWork W4281688219 @default.
• W3186165082 hasVolume "1" @default.
• W3186165082 isParatext "false" @default.
• W3186165082 isRetracted "false" @default.

• next