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- W3186246564 abstract "Permafrost has become increasingly unstable as a result of surface warming; therefore it is crucial to improve our understanding of permafrost spatiotemporal dynamics to assess the impact of active layer thickening on future hydrogeological processes. However, direct determinations of permafrost active-layer thermal properties are few, resulting in large uncertainty in forecasts of active layer thickness. To assess how to reduce the uncertainty without expanding monitoring efforts, a total of 1,728 numerical 1D models were compared using three error measures against observed active layer temperature data from the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Resulting optimized parameter values varied depending on the error measure used, but agree with reported ones: bulk volumetric heat capacity is 1.82–1.94 K, bulk thermal conductivity 1.0–1.2 W/m K and porosity 0.25–0.45 . The active layer thickening rate varied significantly for the three error measures, as demonstrated by a years thawing time-lag between the error measures over a 100 years modeling period." @default.
- W3186246564 created "2021-08-02" @default.
- W3186246564 creator A5064572125 @default.
- W3186246564 creator A5067450806 @default.
- W3186246564 creator A5085485733 @default.
- W3186246564 date "2021-08-14" @default.
- W3186246564 modified "2023-10-17" @default.
- W3186246564 title "Inferring Permafrost Active Layer Thermal Properties From Numerical Model Optimization" @default.
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- W3186246564 doi "https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl093306" @default.
- W3186246564 hasPublicationYear "2021" @default.