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• W3188654315 abstract "Abstract People receiving COVID-19 vaccines may subsequently markedly increase their previously suppressed exposure risk. A simple model can evaluate the benefit of vaccination to the vaccinated (index) person and others exposed to that person; and calculate the amount of risk compensation required to eliminate all the benefits or to halve the benefit. As shown, 2.5-fold increase in exposure will eliminate the benefit of a vaccine of moderate efficacy ( E = 0.6) unless the probability of infection in the population of interest is very high. With very high vaccine efficacy ( E = 0.95), substantial benefit is maintained except in situations where there is a very low probability of infection in the population. If the vaccine efficacy decreases to 0.8, the benefit gets eroded easily with modest risk compensation. Risk compensation may markedly affect the benefit of COVID-19 vaccination, especially if vaccine efficacy in real-life or specific high-risk populations (e.g., nursing home residents) is not very high." @default.
• W3188654315 created "2021-08-16" @default.
• W3188654315 creator A5070446713 @default.
• W3188654315 date "2021-08-11" @default.
• W3188654315 modified "2023-10-10" @default.
• W3188654315 title "Benefit of COVID-19 vaccination accounting for potential risk compensation" @default.
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• W3188654315 doi "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41541-021-00362-z" @default.
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