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• W3191599794 abstract "ABSTRACT Introduction Heath care workers with direct (HCW-D) or indirect (HCW-A) patient contact represent 4.2% to 17.8% of COVID-19 cases. We evaluate the temporal COVID-19 infection behavior among HCW-D, HCW-A, and non-HCW. Methods From February 2020 to April 2021, trained nurses recorded age, gender, occupation, and symptoms in a COVID-19 testing outpatient health center. We allocated data into weekly time fractals and calculated the proportion of COVID-19 positive among HCW vs. non-HCW and incorporated an ARFIMA model (traditionally used in weather forecast) to predict future cases of COVID-19. Results Among 8,998 COVID-19 RT-PCR tests, 3,462 (42%) patients were HCW-D, and 933 (11%) were HCW-A. Overall, 1,914 (21.3%) returned positive, representing 27%, 25% and 19% of HCW-D, HCW-A and non-HCW, respectively. HCW-D or HCW-A were significantly more likely to test positive for COVID-19 than non-HCW (OR=1.5, p<0.0001). The percentage of positive to negative test results remained steady over time. In the positive cases, the percentage of HCW to non-HCW declined significantly over time (Mann-Kendal trend test: tau=-0.58, p<0.0001). Our ARFIMA model showed a long-memory infection pattern in the occurrence of new COVID-19 cases lasting for months. Average error was 1.9 cases per week comparing predicted to actual values three months later (May-July 2021). Conclusion HCW have a sustained 50% higher risk of COVID-19 positivity in the pandemic. Time-series analysis showed a long-memory infection pattern with virus spread mainly among HCWs before the general population. The tool http://wdchealth.covid-map.com/shiny/covid-map/ will be updated according to population previous infection and vaccination impact." @default.
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• W3191599794 date "2021-08-09" @default.
• W3191599794 modified "2023-10-03" @default.
• W3191599794 title "Time-analysis of COVID-19 dispersion among health care workers and the general population" @default.
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• W3191599794 doi "https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.07.21261433" @default.
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