Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W3194865107> ?p ?o ?g. }
- W3194865107 endingPage "126798" @default.
- W3194865107 startingPage "126798" @default.
- W3194865107 abstract "We propose a revised version of the ERRIS (error reduction and representation in stages) error model capable of reliably propagating hydrological uncertainty to long lead times (>150 time steps). ERRIS employs four stages: a transformation to handle heteroscedasticity, a moving average bias-correction, an autoregressive model and two mixture Gaussian distributions. To propagate uncertainty through multiple lead times, ERRIS makes use of a technique termed ‘stochastic updating’. Ensemble spread at long lead times is partly controlled by the interplay of the autoregression coefficient ρ and the width of the error distribution. When ρ approaches 1 and the error distribution is wide, this causes over-wide ensemble distributions at long lead times. We control this interplay with the moving average bias-correction, which reduces the value of ρ and the width of the error distribution, resulting in reliable ensembles at long lead times. An additional control on the width of the ensemble at longer lead times is a restriction applied to the autoregressive model. This restriction guards against large overcorrections, which can lead to very poor forecasts. Applying the restriction when parameters are inferred can result in over-wide residual distributions. We propose the simple expedient of applying the restriction only when forecasts are generated, not when parameters are inferred. We show through a comparison with an earlier version of ERRIS that this produces more reliable ensemble distributions at long lead times, whilst still guarding against overcorrection. The resulting error model is simple and computationally efficient, and thus suitable for deployment in operational streamflow forecasting systems." @default.
- W3194865107 created "2021-08-30" @default.
- W3194865107 creator A5021384155 @default.
- W3194865107 creator A5036820776 @default.
- W3194865107 creator A5050129779 @default.
- W3194865107 creator A5050559754 @default.
- W3194865107 creator A5071407748 @default.
- W3194865107 date "2021-12-01" @default.
- W3194865107 modified "2023-10-09" @default.
- W3194865107 title "Propagating reliable estimates of hydrological forecast uncertainty to many lead times" @default.
- W3194865107 cites W1521667653 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W1587835403 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W1853832225 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W1919502922 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W1951366072 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W1976255336 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2010624461 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2012316213 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2012798851 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2014325697 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2015887535 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2024089565 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2094268838 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2114971337 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2115986271 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2117152638 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2130715829 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2170396766 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2187234032 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2215560032 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2276342788 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2317623121 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2563452632 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2763400280 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2765210464 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2790650361 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2901354535 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2903361729 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2964666627 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2966377380 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2978397126 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2994194851 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W2997000104 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W3014982014 @default.
- W3194865107 cites W3043660597 @default.
- W3194865107 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126798" @default.
- W3194865107 hasPublicationYear "2021" @default.
- W3194865107 type Work @default.
- W3194865107 sameAs 3194865107 @default.
- W3194865107 citedByCount "7" @default.
- W3194865107 countsByYear W31948651072021 @default.
- W3194865107 countsByYear W31948651072022 @default.
- W3194865107 countsByYear W31948651072023 @default.
- W3194865107 crossrefType "journal-article" @default.
- W3194865107 hasAuthorship W3194865107A5021384155 @default.
- W3194865107 hasAuthorship W3194865107A5036820776 @default.
- W3194865107 hasAuthorship W3194865107A5050129779 @default.
- W3194865107 hasAuthorship W3194865107A5050559754 @default.
- W3194865107 hasAuthorship W3194865107A5071407748 @default.
- W3194865107 hasBestOaLocation W31948651072 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConcept C101104100 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConcept C105795698 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConcept C11413529 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConcept C114793014 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConcept C119857082 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConcept C119898033 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConcept C121332964 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConcept C127313418 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConcept C134306372 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConcept C144133560 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConcept C149782125 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConcept C155512373 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConcept C15627037 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConcept C159877910 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConcept C162853370 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConcept C163716315 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConcept C2777093003 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConcept C2781468064 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConcept C33923547 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConcept C41008148 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConcept C62520636 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConceptScore W3194865107C101104100 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConceptScore W3194865107C105795698 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConceptScore W3194865107C11413529 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConceptScore W3194865107C114793014 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConceptScore W3194865107C119857082 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConceptScore W3194865107C119898033 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConceptScore W3194865107C121332964 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConceptScore W3194865107C127313418 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConceptScore W3194865107C134306372 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConceptScore W3194865107C144133560 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConceptScore W3194865107C149782125 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConceptScore W3194865107C155512373 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConceptScore W3194865107C15627037 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConceptScore W3194865107C159877910 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConceptScore W3194865107C162853370 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConceptScore W3194865107C163716315 @default.
- W3194865107 hasConceptScore W3194865107C2777093003 @default.