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- W3195810749 abstract "Key messages: Estimating the effective reproduction number• Analyses were performed to identify temporal changes in the effective reproduction number(Reff) in each Australian state/territory (Figure 2). Due to very low case incidence, theseestimates are becoming increasingly unstable, i.e., based primarily on model assumptionsrather than actual case data.• We are currently developing new methods for assessing epidemic activity, which should bemore informative when daily case incidence is very low. These new methods will incorporatedata on population mobility and chains of transmission e.g., from localised outbreaks.Forecasts of the daily number of new confirmed cases nationally• Our most recent estimates of Reff which were deemed reliable — estimated up to 11 April,based on data up to 20 April — were input into a mathematical model of disease dynamicswhich was projected forward to forecast the daily number of new confirmed cases.• We report an Australia-wide forecast of the daily number of new confirmed cases up to 8June (Figure 3), assuming that the effective reproduction number remains at its currentestimated level (from 11 April).Assessment of adherence to social distancing measures• An analysis of trends in population mobility data streams up to 3 May was performed toassess adherence to social distancing policy. Relating changes in these data streams tochanges in Reff may enable the development of early indicators of increased transmission.• This analysis suggests that adherence to social distancing measures may have decreasedmarginally in the past two to three weeks (Figure 4), although we note that the strongestsignal of reduce adherence is for activities considered to be relatively low risk (driving andvisiting parks)." @default.
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- W3195810749 date "2020-01-01" @default.
- W3195810749 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W3195810749 title "Estimating temporal variation in transmission of COVID-19 and adherence to social distancingmeasures in Australia:technical report 5th May 2020" @default.
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