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• W3197274094 abstract "Many experimental observations have shown that the expected utility theory is violated when people make decisions under risk. Here, we present a decision-making model inspired by the prediction of error signals reported in the brain. In the model, we choose the expected value across all outcomes of an action to be a reference point which people use to gauge the value of different outcomes. Action is chosen based on a nonlinear average of anticipated surprise, defined by the difference between individual outcomes and the abovementioned reference point. The model does not depend on non-linear weighting of the probabilities of outcomes. It is also straightforward to extend the model to multi-step decision-making scenarios, in which new reference points are created as people update their expectation when they evaluate the outcomes associated with an action in a cascading manner. The creation of these new reference points could be due to partial revelation of outcomes, ambiguity, or segregation of probable and improbable outcomes. Several economic paradoxes and gambling behaviors can be explained by the model. Our model might help bridge the gap between theories on decision-making in quantitative economy and neuroscience." @default.
• W3197274094 created "2021-09-13" @default.
• W3197274094 creator A5025415389 @default.
• W3197274094 creator A5047620302 @default.
• W3197274094 date "2021-08-27" @default.
• W3197274094 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
• W3197274094 title "A decision-making model with anticipation of surprise for explaining irrational economic behaviors" @default.
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• W3197274094 hasPublicationYear "2021" @default.
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