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• W3200688716 abstract "The operation of energy systems has a significant role in climate change and global warming, coupled with increasing international commitments that are calling to preserve the environment. This situation needs to optimally exploit the energy resources and develop in a more sustainable way. Recently, the worldwide trend of introducing renewable energy sources is increasing and moving towards achievable sustainability. Furthermore, the change in the structure of energy systems, and the new system arising from deregulation and decentralization of the system, is influenced by various actors.Those circumstances of energy systems indicate that they can develop models based on the agent-based methodology. This approach can help find many possible options based on determining the assumptions for an energy system before they are actually applied. The main motivation to develop an energy distributed planning model is to find a suitable solution for the case of Iraq’s electricity power system that is suffering from many challenges. That emerged as a result of atypical circumstances occurring in Iraq during the last three decades. It aims to analyse the electricity supply development in Iraq with a simultaneous economic growth and shifts in the electricity market. Moreover, Iraq’s domestic energy prospects and the factors which influence projections for the future energy electrical demand are analysed.It is clear in this study that the security situation has a significant impact on the investment in the electricity sector and its rehabilitation. Therefore, the focus on privatisation means that the government has to adopt strong legislation for electrical systems, because, on the one hand, it can give a framework for the ownership and financing of infrastructure improvements, and can create incentives to encourage greater investment. On the other hand, under this security situation and existing causal relationship between energy demand and the economic development of GDP, meeting demand growth remains a major challenge. Iraq’s electricity demand will increase according to the analysis of our approach, which depends on the linear and nonlinear forecasting methods, in order to improve the results of the long-term load forecast, based on historical data. In addition, the high cost and inefficient management of resources of the electricity sector may be increased, because of the aggravation of the economic crisis that the sector now suffers from, which is difficult to overcome. For this reason, progress on distributed renewables, energy efficiency and subsidy reform today will lead to major savings in the future. The solar and wind energies are commercially and technically viable components of the future generation mix. These resources can be exploited to improve the economic situation of the electricity sector, by following a gradual expansion plan, in order to invest in solar and wind energy sources. The large-scale renewable sources require attractive investment conditions, payment guarantees and a realistic view of an achievable bid price.Modelling and simulations are used as tools to represent those dynamic energy systems in a virtual environment. The energy distribution planning indices are developed based on the use of one of those tools that are agent-based models. In this thesis, the basic assumption is to address the energy system only for its use of renewable energy and energy storage that are expected to be widely used in the future. The multi agent-based models for the supplier, distributor and region demand of virtual and electrical systems are presented, related to a renewable energy production with energy storage and energy consumption. Furthermore, the models allow the inclusion of consumer behaviour, such as the response to energy market prices, which has to be considered. That approach allows to examine the ability of a renewable energy supply to satisfy the demand at high reliability levels under the optimal selection for the capacity of energy storage.A heuristic algorithm is developed based on this basic assumption for the system, in order to design a reliable electricity supply, by achieving a balance in energy supply and demand simultaneously with the determination of the optimal capacity of energy storage devices and their location. The application of the heuristic algorithm is illustrated by designing and simulating the electricity consumption in Iraq and the renewable energy production in Germany, in order to test the system efficiency for different state update mechanisms. While this approach was developed, two important issues emerged. Firstly, for the supplier, the decision to select the best technologies, including energy storage devices and their location, depends on the available energy resources and distributor options. Secondly, for the distributor, the decision to select the best supplier depends on the consumer options and attributes of the city demand. Through simulation, those decisions can be identified and recommended to be carried out. Knowing more about those renewable energy sources and energy storage in real systems can help to further avoid unstable situations and design a system that will stay in a stable state. We can conclude that this thesis creates a basic theory for a new vision of energy systems with a heuristic algorithm. It can help to improve and design future power grids, as well as in a better understanding of system operation under these assumptions." @default.
• W3200688716 created "2021-09-27" @default.
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• W3200688716 date "2019-01-01" @default.
• W3200688716 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
• W3200688716 title "Modelling and Optimisation Planning of the Dynamic System of Energy Supply - Integrating Demand-Side Management and Forecasting" @default.
• W3200688716 hasPublicationYear "2019" @default.
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