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- W3202355324 abstract "If the U.S. is on a fiscally sustainable path, then higher U.S. government debt/output ratios should reliably predict higher future surpluses or lower real returns on Treasurys. In the post-war sample, we find no evidence for this. Neither future cash flows nor discount rates account for the variation in the current debt/output ratio. Instead, the future debt/output ratio accounts for most of the variation. Systematic surplus forecast errors can account for part of these findings. Since the start of the GFC, surplus projections have anticipated a large fiscal correction that failed to materialize.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org." @default.
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- W3202355324 date "2021-01-01" @default.
- W3202355324 modified "2023-10-16" @default.
- W3202355324 title "What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt/Output Ratio? The Dogs that Didn't Bark" @default.
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- W3202355324 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3924900" @default.
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