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• W3203074313 abstract "Load forecasts are fundamental inputs for the reliable and resilient operation of a power system. Globally, researchers endeavor to improve the resulting forecast accuracies. However, the lack of studies detailing a standardized model development process remains a major issue. In this regard, this paper advances the knowledge of the systematic development of a short-term load forecast (STLF) model for electric utilities. The proposed model has been developed by using hourly load (time series) of five years of an electric power utility in Pakistan. Following the investigation of previously developed forecast models, this study addresses the challenges of STLF by utilizing multiple linear regression, bootstrap aggregated decision trees, and artificial neural networks (ANNs) as mutually competitive forecasting techniques. The study also highlights both rudimentary and advanced elements of data extraction, synthetic weather station development, and the use of elastic nets for feature space development to upscale its reproducibility at the global level. Simulations showed the superior forecasting prowess of ANNs over other techniques in terms of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and R2 score. Furthermore, an empirical approach has been taken to underline the effects of data recency, climatic events, power cuts, human activities, and public holidays on the model’s overall performance." @default.
• W3203074313 created "2021-10-11" @default.
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• W3203074313 date "2021-01-01" @default.
• W3203074313 modified "2023-10-15" @default.
• W3203074313 title "Systematic Development of Short-Term Load Forecasting Models for the Electric Power Utilities: The Case of Pakistan" @default.
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• W3203074313 doi "https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2021.3117951" @default.
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