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- W3204229744 abstract "Abstract Background : To estimate the transition probabilities of esophageal cancer（EC） and its precancerous lesions by Markov model, which could provide important information for EC screening about choosing reasonable screening and follow-up intervals. Methods : The transition probabilities among pathological stages were estimated by establishing Markov models for the natural history of EC and repeatedly adjusting and calibrating Markov models by comparing the modeled incidence and distributions of pathological stages (alone or combined) with observed data in real-world condition. Results : In one year, the probabilities were 0.024, 0.05, 0.12 for people from health state progressing to mild dysplasia (mD), mild dysplasia (mD) to moderate dysplasia (MD), and moderate dysplasia (MD) to severe dysplasia/carcinoma in situ (SD/CIS), respectively. The age-specific transition probabilities were 0.08~0.18 for severe dysplasia/carcinoma in situ (SD/CIS) progressing to intramucosal carcinoma(IC), 0.4~0.87 for intramucosal carcinoma (IC) to submucosal carcinoma (T 1 N 0 M 0 ) (SC), and 0.2~0.85 for submucosal carcinoma (T 1 N 0 M 0 ) (SC) to invasive carcinoma (INC). The progression probabilities increased with age and the severity of the disease. Based on the estimated transition probabilities, we predicted the incidence of EC and distributions of its pathological stages. Comparisons between modeled results with observed data confirmed the validation of our transition probabilities. Conclusions : An esophageal cancer transition model in high-risk areas of China has been established with validity. It could be a point of reference for further economic evaluation and policy formulation of esophageal cancer screening." @default.
- W3204229744 created "2021-10-11" @default.
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- W3204229744 date "2021-09-28" @default.
- W3204229744 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
- W3204229744 title "Probability of Transition of Normal Esophageal Mucosa and Precancerous Lesion to the Esophageal Cancer" @default.
- W3204229744 doi "https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-917455/v1" @default.
- W3204229744 hasPublicationYear "2021" @default.
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