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- W3204900900 abstract "The optimization of preventive maintenance of aging materials can be well modelled through the application of the two-parameters Weibull law. Unfortunately there is no theoretical model describing the aging of components implied in emergency interventions which may fail in very moment of demand. These components are relevant to the safety of Nuclear Power Plants and the main problem with them is the optimization of the maintenance and the test schedule. Indeed the effect of any test is twofold, namely: the test reveals failures which otherwise would occur when the Power Plant would need urgent intervention but at the same time it causes the aging process to step up. The aging process is suspected to affect certain safeguard equipment, but it does not exist a theoretical model of component aging in function of demands. Sections 2.1 and 2.2 of the paper are devoted to the description of a Bayesian model of discrete aging, deriving the likelihood function of the model (data modelling) and to selecting `the best prior` (Analyst knowledge) that can be associated to the likelihood, respectively. The aspects of numerical integration relative to assessing the predictive reliability of the aging components are discussed in Section 2.3. Section 3 reports a Reliability Centered Maintenance application of the model to cylinders of emergency electrical generators of the NPP nuclear sectors. These components are subjected to an annual endoscopic checking and to a systematical replacement at every 5 years. The statistical Bayesian decision theory was applied to determine an optimal period of cylinder replacement based on the aging model presented in this paper. It is shown that the optimal value is between 10 to 12 years. (author). 7 refs." @default.
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- W3204900900 date "1997-12-31" @default.
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- W3204900900 title "Probabilistic risk analysis of aging components which fail on demand. A Bayesian model. Application to maintenance optimization of Diesel engine linings; Evaluation probabiliste du risque de defaillance de materiels vieillissants. Application a l`optimisation de la maintenance des cylindres de groupes electrogenes" @default.
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