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• W3208249701 abstract "Summary Selection of a safe mud weight is crucial in drilling operations to reduce costly wellbore-instability problems. Advanced physics models and their analytical solutions for mud-weight-window computation are available but still demanding in terms of central-processing-unit (CPU) time. This paper presents an artificial-intelligence (AI) solution for predicting time-dependent safe mud-weight windows and very refined polar charts in real time. The AI agents are trained and tested on data generated from a time-dependent coupled analytical solution (poroelastic) because numerical solutions are prohibitively slow. Different AI techniques, including linear regression, decision tree, random forest, extra trees, adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and neural networks are evaluated to select the most suitable one. The results show that neural networks have the best performances and are capable of predicting time-dependent mud-weight windows and polar charts as accurately as the analytical solution, with 1/1,000 of the computer time needed, making them very applicable to real-time drilling operations. The trained neural networks achieve a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.0352 and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.9984 for collapse mud weights, and an MSE of 0.0072 and an R2 of 0.9998 for fracturing mud weights on test data sets. The neural networks are statistically guaranteed to predict mud weights that are within 5% and 10% of the analytical solutions with probability up to 0.986 and 0.997, respectively, for collapse mud weights, and up to 0.9992 and 0.9998, respectively, for fracturing mud weights. Their time performances are significantly faster and less demanding in computing capacity than the analytical solution, consistently showing three-orders-of-magnitude speedups in computational speed tests. The AI solution is integrated into a deployed wellbore-stability analyzer, which is used to demonstrate the AI’s performances and advantages through three case studies." @default.
• W3208249701 created "2021-11-08" @default.
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• W3208249701 date "2021-10-26" @default.
• W3208249701 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
• W3208249701 title "Application of Artificial Intelligence To Predict Time-Dependent Mud-Weight Windows in Real Time" @default.
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• W3208249701 doi "https://doi.org/10.2118/206748-pa" @default.
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