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- W3208529897 abstract "Decision-makers frequently use numerical estimates, such as distances, future prices, and the expected timing of events. How do they evaluate these estimates, once they observe the correct values? This research finds that when people evaluate estimates for their accuracy, they judge underestimates to be better than overestimates in these comparisons. For instance, if an obtained stock price is $25, an underestimate interval ($21-$23) is evaluated better than an overestimate interval ($27-$29), and a point value underestimate of $22 is evaluated better than an overestimate ($28). Perceptions of under (vs. over) estimates in turn influence important decisions, such as which forecasters to hire, based on their past estimates. Six experiments demonstrate this effect across multiple decision domains and support a numerical processing framework for the finding. The results suggest that people find it easier (more difficult) to calculate the difference between an underestimate (overestimate) and the correct value, which in turn influences the perceived accuracy of the estimate. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved)." @default.
- W3208529897 created "2021-11-08" @default.
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- W3208529897 date "2021-11-04" @default.
- W3208529897 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
- W3208529897 title "Comparing estimates for decision-making: Numerical processing and preferences for underestimates versus overestimates." @default.
- W3208529897 doi "https://doi.org/10.1037/xap0000401" @default.
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- W3208529897 hasPublicationYear "2021" @default.
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