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- W3208581207 abstract ": With the spread of the new coronavirus around the world, governments of various countries havebegun to use the mathematical modeling method to construct some virus transmission models assessing therisks of spatial spread of the new coronavirus COVID-19, while carrying out epidemic prevention work, andthen calculate the inflection point for better prevention and control of epidemic transmission. This workanalyzes the spread of the new coronavirus in China, Italy, Germany, Spain, and France, and explores thequantitative relationship between the growth rate of the number of new coronavirus infections and time. Background: In December 2019 , the first Chinese patients with pneumonia of unknown causeis China admitted to hospital in Wuhan, Hubei Jinyintan , since then, COVID-19 in the rapid expansion ofChina Wuhan, Hubei, in a few months time, COVID-19 is Soon it spread to a total of 34 provincial-leveladministrative regions in China and neighboring countries, and Hubei Province immediately became thehardest hit by the new coronavirus. In an emergency situation, we strive to establish an accurate infectiousdisease retardation growth model to predict the development and propagation of COVID-19, and on this basis, make some short-term effective predictions. The construction of this model has Relevant departments arehelpful for the prevention and monitoring of the new coronavirus, and also strive for more time for the clinicaltrials of Chinese researchers and the research on vaccines against the virus to eliminate the new corona virusas soon as possible. Methods: Collect and compare and integrate the spread of COVID-19 in China, Italy, France, Spain andGermany, record the virus transmission trend among people in each country and the protest measures ofrelevant government departments. According to the original data change law, Establish a Logistic growthmodel. Findings: Based on the analysis results of the Logistic model model, the Logistic model has a good fittingeffect on the actual cumulative number of confirmed cases, which can bring a better effect to the prediction ofthe epidemic situation and the prevention and control of the epidemic situation. Interpretation: In the early stage of the epidemic, due to inadequate anti-epidemic measures in variouscountries, the epidemic situation in various countries spread rapidly. However, with the gradualunderstanding of COVI D -19, the epidemic situation began to be gradually controlled, thereby retardinggrowth." @default.
- W3208581207 created "2021-11-08" @default.
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- W3208581207 date "2021-03-30" @default.
- W3208581207 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W3208581207 title "Biostatistical Analysis of the risks of spatial spread during the COVID-19 pandemic" @default.
- W3208581207 hasPublicationYear "2021" @default.
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