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• W3210170204 abstract "Forecasts of lightning in the Met Office’s Unified Model (MetUM) are known to overforecast the total number of lightning flashes in the UK. One of the difficulties inunderstanding why this happens comes from the dependence of the lightning forecaston the convective forecast. This problem can be mitigated using a more physicallyrepresentative forecasting method to compare against and by comparing lightning production in modelled thunderstorms to that in observed thunderstorms.In order to provide a more physically representative forecasting method a new,explicit thunderstorm electrification and lightning scheme is implemented within theMetUM. This scheme uses non-inductive collisional charging to represent the chargegenerated on hydrometeors and produce a charge density distribution. From this, themagnitude of the electric field is calculated, with appropriate thresholds selected toallow initiation of lightning events. It is shown that this scheme accurately representsobserved thunderstorm charge magnitude and structure.Results from the new electrification scheme are compared with those from the existing lightning parameterisation within the MetUM, and to natural lightning observations in two case studies. The new electrification scheme performs well in both ascattered, fair weather convection case study in the UK and an organised, deep convection case study in the US. It shows realistic lightning coverage and reproduced the dailylightning flash accumulation relatively accurately. The collision-separation efficiencyis found to be a key parameter and therefore a potential source of uncertainty in thescheme. Through comparison with the new scheme, the existing MetUM parameterisation is shown to be producing lightning in a manner that is too closely dependenton the rainfall accumulation, which it is suggested is related to its poor performancein the UK case study.Observations of single cell thunderstorms are used to investigate the production oflightning in thunderstorms in the UK. It is found that prior to the onset of lightningproduction, single cell thunderstorms show an increase in storm core area. Model simulations of similarly intensifying thunderstorms show that, during these intensifications,the updraft velocity and area both increase, as does the graupel mass in the stormcore. It is shown that the new electrification scheme can reproduce the increase inupdraft area and graupel mass in intensifying storms, whereas the existing lightningparameterisation does not reproduce any of these parameters. The use of this newelectrification scheme, whilst not operationally feasible with existing computer power,provides a research tool with which to further improve lightning forecasting." @default.
• W3210170204 created "2021-11-08" @default.
• W3210170204 creator A5078441684 @default.
• W3210170204 date "2020-07-31" @default.
• W3210170204 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
• W3210170204 title "Representing thunderstormelectrification for lightning forecastevaluation" @default.
• W3210170204 doi "https://doi.org/10.48683/1926.00101035" @default.
• W3210170204 hasPublicationYear "2020" @default.
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