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- W3211111803 abstract "Landslides are intricately linked to weather and climate. Both are changing and will continue to do so with anthropogenic climate change which has propelled us into a climate more akin to the Pliocene than what humanity was used to in the Holocene. Uncontrolled climate change may bring us to Eocene climatic conditions by the end of the century. Hydroclimatic extremes will clearly be on the rise both in severity and frequency. Landslides are a higher order effect of climate change. Hence, relations between climate change and landslide response are highly diverse in type, space and time. Broadly speaking, one can differentiate between shallow landslides that readily respond to increases in porewater pressures and deep-seated landslides, many of which may be unique enough to prohibit any generalisations. This said, this contribution identifies that shallow landslides (debris slides, debris avalanches and debris flows) will likely respond with increases in frequencies where there are no or little moisture limitations and sufficient debris available for initiation and transport. Their respective magnitudes will hinge, to a large degree on sediment availability. Hence, shallow-landslide frequency–magnitude relationships of the future will be different for different basins types, and I propose a framework to facilitate such differentiation. Finally, higher order effects such as increases in wildfire occurrence and severity, beetle infestations or other vegetative changes are increasingly affecting shallow landslide response. For rockfalls, rockslides and rock avalanches, the connections between occurrence and climate change appear more complicated yet. A well-established link appears to be the degradation of alpine permafrost which removes ice cohesion and hence tends to release unstable rock fragments or rock masses when cohesion is lost and perhaps replaced by joint water pressures. Numerous studies have attempted to link weather with rockfall activity, none of which allowed sufficient explained variance to create reliable weather-based prediction systems as are known for shallow landslides. Deep-seated landslides in soil respond to complex and diverse hydroclimatic inputs with sometimes long response times between a weather event or prolonged above-average precipitation and changes in movement rates. Even then, movement rate changes may occur in specific portions of the landslide and then propagate down- or uphill. Where landslide activity is linked to basal river erosion, the picture becomes even more opaque, as changes in river discharge may exert a greater influence on landslide mechanics than direct changes in hydroclimate. In each case, careful and long-term study is required to understand the linkage between climate, weather and landslide geomechanics before one can attempt conclusions on the impacts of climate change. Even a long-term (>5 year) study will likely not include extreme (<1% annual probability) events, and hence conclusions on the changes of such extremes with respect to landslide movement remain elusive. Increases in temperature and rainfall/runoff extremes need to be studied in light of enhanced evaporation and evapotranspiration changes in the location and depth of desiccation cracks openings allowing water infiltration and changes in snowmelt-driven ground water recharge. Coastal landslides are increasingly gaining attention as rising sea levels paired with a more dynamic hydroclimate threaten to increase rate, and in some cases, magnitude of coastal landslides. However, analogous to their terrestrial counterparts, any simplifying statements should be avoided as engineering geology governs response to climate change, which in the case of coastal landslides can be as complex as that of deep-seated landslides inland. Where wave action is a key destabilising agent, direction, frequency and magnitude of storm surges can be as important as rising water levels in deciphering the effects of climate change on coastal landslides. Landslides in the cryosphere have become a major focal point in global literature in the last 10–20 years. Glacial debuttressing and permafrost degradation in addition to an intensification of extreme storms conspire to create conditions that make high alpine terrain more susceptible to a broad spectrum of landslide processes. Disconcerting is the apparent increase in rock avalanches with the potential of unleashing a hazard chain that can transfer potentially catastrophic landslides well into settlement areas. A different research focus is large regional studies that aim to identify the costs and life loss increases associated with a changing climate. These studies, whilst instructive, require substantial assumptions as to the type of landslides and their hydrological–geotechnical response to changing input parameters. Irrespective of such limitations, those investigations can, at the least, shed light on the expected relative changes in loss potential which may convince some decision makers in liberating funds to deepen the scientific understanding and refine such models. From case studies and regional studies emerges the question of adaptation and mitigation. Whilst those measures are not fundamentally different from what a government would do even in absence of climate change, it is key to realise that the past may no longer be a reliable proxy of future conditions and that adaptation may need to extend well beyond current mitigation measures. My hope is that this chapter will play a small part in convincing decision makers and grant administrators that investment in landslide research is valuable." @default.
- W3211111803 created "2021-11-08" @default.
- W3211111803 creator A5065403140 @default.
- W3211111803 date "2022-01-01" @default.
- W3211111803 modified "2023-10-16" @default.
- W3211111803 title "Landslides in a changing climate" @default.
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