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- W3211549931 abstract "Abstract Many macroeconomic forecasts are the outcome of a judgmental adjustment to a forecast from an econometric model. The size, direction, and motivation of the adjustment are often unknown as usually only the final forecast is available. This is problematic in case an analyst wishes to learn from forecast errors, which could lead to improving the model, the judgment or both. This paper therefore proposes a formal method to include judgment, which makes the combined forecast reproducible. As an illustration, a forecast from a benchmark simple time series model is only modified when the value of a factor, estimated from a multitude of variables, exceeds a user-specified threshold. Simulations and empirical results for forecasting annual real GDP growth in 52 African countries provide an illustration." @default.
- W3211549931 created "2021-11-22" @default.
- W3211549931 creator A5064321959 @default.
- W3211549931 date "2021-11-09" @default.
- W3211549931 modified "2023-10-16" @default.
- W3211549931 title "Modeling Judgment in Macroeconomic Forecasts" @default.
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- W3211549931 doi "https://doi.org/10.1007/s40953-021-00277-5" @default.
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