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• W3212715348 abstract "While the effect of higher public debt levels on economic growth has received much attention, the literature partly points to contradictory results. This paper applies meta-regression methods to 816 estimates from 47 primary studies. The unweighted mean of the reported results suggests that a 10 percentage points increase in public-debt-to-GDP is associated with a decline in annual growth rates by 0.14 percentage points, with a 95% confidence interval from 0.09 to 0.19 percentage points. However, we cannot reject a zero effect after correcting for publication bias. Furthermore, the meta-regression analysis shows that tackling endogeneity between public debt and growth leads to less adverse effects of public debt. In testing for nonlinear effects, our results do not point to a uniform public-debt-to-GDP threshold beyond which growth slows. Threshold estimates are sensitive to data and econometric choices. These findings imply a lack of evidence of a consistently negative growth effect of higher public-debt-to-GDP. The main policy implication is that there should be caution with regard to “one-size-fits-all” fiscal policy prescriptions in dealing with higher public debt levels." @default.
• W3212715348 created "2021-11-22" @default.
• W3212715348 creator A5000632100 @default.
• W3212715348 date "2022-09-24" @default.
• W3212715348 modified "2023-10-09" @default.
• W3212715348 title "Do higher public debt levels reduce economic growth?" @default.
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• W3212715348 doi "https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12536" @default.
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