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• W322778855 abstract "The American job machine finally is starting to rev up again. Employment growth stagnated at 20,000 a month in the year and a half leading up to the 1992 election. It rose to 135,000 a month in the final quarter of the Bush presidency. And the pace picked up under President Bill Clinton, as the American economy created 800,000 new jobs in the first four months of the new administration. This was almost as rapid as the 250,000 new jobs created every month in the last six years under Ronald Reagan. Here lies the new president's central political challenge. Mr. Clinton inherited from George Bush an economy with the slowest job and GDP growth of any recovery since World War II. He will be judged by voters, as Mr. Bush was, on whether he can restore sustained job growth to the level Americans enjoyed in the 1980s. Following the 1981-1982 recession, Americans became accustomed to robust economic growth. The economy grew by 3.9 percent in 1983, by a phenomenal 6.2 percent in 1984, and averaged 3.3 percent a year until 1990. Job growth was equally strong, with 21 million jobs created during that period. America's employment record was the envy of the world. In July 1990 the economy slipped back into recession, beginning a contraction that continued for the next nine months. In that time, the nation's output of goods and services shrank by almost 1 percent. Employment fell by 1.2 million, and the unemployment rate reached 6.7 percent. To the dismay of George Bush, among others, the economy failed to rebound as it had after prior recessions, and the resulting turmoil cost him the presidency. The strong job growth that had been the hallmark of Ronald Reagan's recovery during the 1980s gave way to a limping recovery that could create only 425,000 jobs in the 20 months that remained before the election. The Reagan boom created more jobs in two months than the post-recession Bush economy did in a year and a half. Even worse, unemployment continued to rise even after the official end of the recession, peaking at 7.7 percent in June 1992, a full percentage point above the unemployment rate at the bottom of the recession, and 2.5 percentage points higher than it had been when George Bush entered the White House. Job growth did not pick up until after the election, averaging over 130,000 a month in the final quarter, too late to help Mr. Bush. George Bush did not lose the White House because of the recession during his administration. If this were the case, Ronald Reagan would never have been elected to a second term. Indeed, the Reagan recession was much more severe than Mr. Bush's. Whereas the Bush recession saw employment fall by 1.6 percent, it fell by more than 3 percent under Ronald Reagan, whose unemployment rate peaked at more than 9 percent. Gross domestic product fell by 2.4 percent under Mr. Reagan, compared with only 2 percent under Mr. Bush. Presidents are driven from the White House not because they preside over recessions, but because they fail to articulate and enforce a blueprint for recovery - a blueprint designed to spur economic growth and, above all, to boost employment. The danger for President Clinton is that his health care and labor policies will reverse the upward trend we are finally seeing in employment, and that America will be forced down a path of fewer rather than more jobs. Unemployment in May 1993 was still in the Bush leagues - at 6.9 percent. And Mr. Clinton is framing the jobs-policy debate in a way that permanently will exclude many Americans from jobs for which they would otherwise be qualified. Low Growth, Low Employment There are three major reasons why job growth has been so much more sluggish than in the 1980s. The first is that overall economic growth has been very slow, especially considering that the economy is in a period of recovery. The second is that America continues to enjoy significant growth in productivity, a characteristic that is good for American competitiveness, but has the perverse effect of reducing employment in many sectors of the economy. …" @default.
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• W322778855 date "1993-06-22" @default.
• W322778855 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
• W322778855 title "Bush-League Unemployment: Will Clinton's Labor Policies Lower the Job Boom?" @default.
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