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- W326285630 abstract "ACROSS THE WORLD, millions of people depend on social security systems for their well-being. These programs need a regular inflow of money to support them, which often is a strain on government budgets. Concerns about the financial stability- of such systems has prompted reforms in many countries - including Portugal. In their study of the Portuguese social security system entitled Social Security' and Economic Performance in Portugal: After AU That Has Been Said and Done, How Much Has Actually Changed?, Professors Alfredo Pereira of the College of William and Mary and Jorge Andraz of the Universidad do Algarve in Portugal explore the economic impact of recent reforms in the Portuguese social security system. In Portugal, much like in the United States, social security covers a broad spectrum of activities. However, their program extends beyond what many Americans are accustomed to: the Portuguese system finances a broad network of retirement pensions for private and public sector employees and their families, a large social assistance program including substantial unemployment benefits, and many other benefit programs. The authors identify three main threats to this social security' system: large non-contributory coverage, great numbers of disability and survivor beneficiaries, and the system's breadth of assistance. An inherent flaw in the system, they claim, is its underlying pay-as-yougo funding mechanism (like that of the United States). Payroll are the system's backbone, but the lack of a direct relationship between the contributions and benefits creates a perception that contributions are an empty tax on labor income. Indeed, for the firm, these taxes will - negatively affect labor demand; for the employee, these contributions reduce disposable income, private savings, and consequendy, capital formation. The authors deem these adverse effects inefficiencies induced by the burden of social security spending. This multitude of problems has resulted in the implementation of several reforms over the past several decades. Since the Portuguese Revolution of 1 974 and the expansion of benefits in 1984, there have been at least four distinct periods of structural reform: the first in the early 1990s, which allowed partial privatization; another in 1 993 that combined benefits for private and public sector workers; a third in 2002 that altered pension calculations; and a final reform in 2007. To analyze whether exogenous variables had any effect on social security spending given these reforms, the professors created a dynamic inter-temporal model. The model endeavored to correlate the relationships between changes in social security spending and changes in other macroeconomic variables. These other variables include the growth rate in the gross domestic product, unit labor costs, unemployment and savings rates, and total social security spending. Within their model, the authors identify and separate the endogenous and exogenous shocks to social security spending. The professors found that spending as a percentage of GDP averaged 10.3% from 1970 to 2007, with annual growth as a percentage of GDP increasing at 1.24% annually. However, to isolate the impact of social security spending from other flux, the professors controlled growth rates in their model, measuring how a one-time, one-percentage point change in social security spending affected each of the variables in their model. Pereira and Algarve's model calculated that for a one percentage point increase in social security spending, unit labor costs increased by 2.4% and the unemployment rate increased by 1.7%. Furthermore, the model's calculations confirmed the idea that social security spending reduces savings rates, albeit by a rather small degree: 0.28%. Naturally, GDP was affected by the changes in spending, with output decreasing by 2.9 Euros for every one Euro increase in spending. When the professors incorporated each of the retorm periods into account, they found that in years immediately after their implementation, the reforms successfully increased the gross savings rate and decreased per- worker costs for the firms, but inadvertently decreased overall labor demand. …" @default.
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- W326285630 date "2010-01-01" @default.
- W326285630 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W326285630 title "Portugal's Social Security System: The Efficacy of Reforms" @default.
- W326285630 hasPublicationYear "2010" @default.
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