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- W327119016 abstract "Este trabajo replica y adapta el modelo de Jones y Hensher (2004) a los datos de una economia emergente con el proposito de evaluar su validez externa. Se compara el desempeno del modelo logistico estandar en relacion con el modelo logistico mixto para predecir el riesgo de crisis en el periodo 1993-2000, utilizando estados contables de empresas argentinas y ratios de nidos en estudios de Altman y Jones y Hensher. Como en estudios anteriores, rentabilidad, rotacion, endeudamiento y flujo de fondos operativos explican la probabilidad de crisis financiera. La contribucion de esta nueva metodologia reduce la tasa de error del tipo I a un 9 %. Se demuestra que el modelo logistico mixto, que tiene en cuenta la heterogeneidad no observada, supera ampliamente el desempeno del modelo logistico estandar.------------------------------------This study is a replication and adaptation of Jones and Hensher (2004) model in an emerging economy with the purpose of testing its eternal validity. It compares the logistic standard model's performance with the logistic mixed model to predict bankruptcy risk of Argentinean companies between 1993-2000 by using financial statements and ratios defined in previous studies by Altman and Jones and Hensher. Similar to previous studies, profitability, asset turnover, debt and cash flow from operations explain financial distress' probability. The main contribution of this new methodology is the important reduction of error type I to the 9 %. This study asserts that the logistic mixed model, that considers the effect of non-observed heterogeneity, significantly improves the performance of the logistic standard model." @default.
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- W327119016 date "2013-01-01" @default.
- W327119016 modified "2023-10-03" @default.
- W327119016 title "Predicción de quiebras empresariales en economías emergentes: uso de un modelo logístico mixto || Bankruptcy Prediction in Emerging Economies: Use of a Mixed Logistic Model" @default.
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