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- W329399992 abstract "Several prominent theories of conditional reasoning argue that reasoners compute and use conditional probability information to engage in conditional reasoning processes, which suggests that naive reasoners should be at least somewhat sensitive to the factors that affect conditional probability. In two experiments, reasoners solved Mastermind problems in which an array of colored buttons and feedback were provided, and participants were asked to make deductions about the colors and their locations in the array. In the first experiment, each problem contained a high stationarity button that did move in the array, although its conditional probability of its possible location in the array varied. In the second experiment, each problem contained at least one button whose location in the array was logically certain, while the stationarity of the button was varied. Experiment 1 showed that, contrary to the predictions of some dual-process theorists, the likelihood with which people made deductions of stationary buttons was significantly influenced by the stationary buttons' conditional probability. People with deductive competence were also no more likely to make correct logical deductions of stationary buttons than were people with less deductive competence. Experiment 2 showed that people were more likely to conclude that buttons that appeared in the array more frequently were more likely to be code members than were buttons that had appeared less frequently even when the conditional probability of all buttons in the array was held constant at unity. People were much more likely to correctly deduce high stationarity buttons compared to low stationarity buttons, even when the conditional probability of the buttons was held constant at unity. The pattern of response suggests that, at least in this form of conditional reasoning, people use more superficial characteristics of the information presented, such as covariation patterns, than they use conditional probability computation to make their deductive inferences. These findings were discussed in terms of their implications for some potential boundary conditions in conditional probability computation. Evans (1999) defined reasoning as the ability of untrained individuals to understand and generate logical arguments, that is, inferences in which a conclusion must necessarily follow from some given premises. Such reasoning can occur in many forms, one of which is known as conditional reasoning, that is, reasoning about implications from the word if. In conditional reasoning studies, a person may be given a conditional syllogism beginning with a premise containing the content P then The person is also given an additional premise that either affirms or negates P or Q. Then the person may be asked if any conclusion necessarily follows from that information. In other paradigms, the individual may be given a potential conclusion about the content of the other term that was included as a premise and asked to determine the likelihood that this conclusion necessarily follows from the premises, if the premises are assumed to be true. For example, in the following case Premise: If P then Q Premise: (i.e., not Q) Conclusion: ~P This conclusion necessarily follows from the premises, and the syllogism is thus an example of a valid conditional reasoning process known as Modus Tollens (MT). There are three other conditional reasoning processes, one valid and two invalid. In the following case: Premise: If P then Q Premise: P Conclusion: Q The conclusion likewise necessarily follows, and so it must also be true if the premises are true. This valid process is known as Modus Ponens (MP). No valid conclusion follows from the conditional premise and ~P. So the reasoner who concludes that ~Q is necessary in that case has used an invalid process known as Denying the Antecedent (DA). …" @default.
- W329399992 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W329399992 date "2010-12-01" @default.
- W329399992 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W329399992 title "Conditional Reasoning = Conditional Probability? Not Necessarily" @default.
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