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- W330410439 abstract "In recent times, the application of standard cost-benefit analysis to development projects has led to appraisals is biased upwards, and is also poor predictors of the actual returns from these projects. Similarly, the North American and European experience with energy conservation projects has shown a clear tendency to under-estimate costs and over-estimate benefits. Hence, unless appropriate changes are made in the methodology, ex-ante appraisals of energy conservation projects in developing countries are likely to be poor guides of the actual outcomes from the projects as well as of the host country's willingness to actually implement the projects. Consequently, Global Environment Facility (GEF's) rule of classifying projects as ineligible for GEF support (Type I projects) based on the appraisal of net domestic benefits alone suffers from two potential flaws. First, under the present methodology, the appraisals tend to result in over-optimistic assessments, so that GEF may fail to support projects that may need support. Second, this classification method fails to take account of the host country's assessment of the project, which may not be based solely on the appraised net domestic benefits. Thus, GEF may mistakenly conclude that the host country will implement the project on its own. It is suggested that GEF revise its decision rule to take account not only of the appraised net domestic benefits, but also of other factors such as the amount of global environmental benefits at stake and the level of financial support to be provided by GEF." @default.
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- W330410439 date "1994-06-01" @default.
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- W330410439 title "Risk and uncertainty : selection criteria for projects offering net positive domestic benefits" @default.
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