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• W331846227 abstract "New product forecasting models can answer many questions raised at the time of developing a market strategy ...discusses in detail guidelines for developing a new product forecasting model...presents a way to quantify factors to be used in the model. Often marketers overlook the discipline of new product forecasting when it comes to identifying the most important decision-making tools for strategic marketing. However, new product forecasting models can answer questions most often asked when developing market strategies. With a comprehensive forecasting model that utilizes proper market research, a business manager can confidently and objectively develop strategies such as of a product portfolio, marketing mix, and capital budget. At the Sprint Corporation, guidelines were recently developed to assist forecasters in quantifying new business opportunities using the most pertinent research available. The guidelines cover the whole forecasting process including: (1) Accumulating information, (2) developing a model, (3) preparing forecasts, and (4) monitoring the performance of a model over time. This article deals only with the process of developing a model. DEVELOPING A MODEL Without question, the data required for a new product forecasting model differs from one product/service to another. But, in each case, there are set of guidelines which should be followed. This pathway may take many detours, but it will provide directions when attempting to travel from an initial forecasting request to the development of a solid quantitative model. The components of a new product forecasting model can be categorized into six: * Market Definition * History of Similar Products/Services * Complementary/Substitute Products * Uncontrollable Factors * Controllable Factors * Product Life Cycle Timing There are set guidelines for each of these six components which are discussed below. MARKET DEFINITION The best way to define the potential of a market is by asking this fundamental question: Given all that I know about the benefits that this product provides, what attributes characterize the type or types of consumers that are most likely to desire, will be able to afford, and will ultimately purchase this product? The answer will vary from one product to another. With different products, this definition process can vary from identifying the entire population through census data to isolating one segment (e.g., families earning $50,000 or more). The criteria of definition will vary depending on identified probable customers from research and expert opinion. (For example, a potential market for a telephone service may be any household with a phone, while the potential market for computer software may be any household with a home computer.) HISTORY OF SIMILAR PRODUCTS/SERVICES In some cases, the history of similar products and services can serve as a valuable input for a new product forecast. Information pertaining to their initial adoption, growth in penetration, and saturation of the market can be of great help in identifying an appropriate forecasting model. COMPLEMENTARY/SUBSTITUTE PRODUCTS The information about complementary/substitute products can also be helpful in deciding on a forecasting model. The information about this can be obtained by asking this question: Given the benefits that this product provides and the segments most likely to adopt, how will the penetration of this new product affect the sales of other products which serve the same product-market? The degree of complementarity/substitutability must be computed, which can be accomplished by calculating cross-elasticity of a product against other products. UNCONTROLLABLE FACTORS In determining an appropriate new product forecasting model, uncontrollable factors (factors which are not under the control of business) must be considered. …" @default.
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• W331846227 title "New Product Forecasting: An Identification of Model Components" @default.
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