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• W336976030 abstract "Opening our minds to other views, we can steer the future in the right direction. Take a minute to imagine the future. Look forward at least thirty years. Put yourself in a real location: your home, looking at a city skyline, or on a typical street. Picture it and consider it in detail. What do you see? What is life like? What technologies do or do not exist? Is the landscape or world you envision peaceful, violent, or both? Are people happy? What are they doing? What are they eating? How are they communicating? Chances are, the image you have in your head would resemble one of four alternative future archetypes. Your imagined world is very likely one that either reflects continued growth, civilization collapse, a world of resources and behavioral constraint, or a technologically transformed world. Enter the Four Archetypes Of the four alternative future archetypes- growth, collapse, discipline (or constraint), and transformation-growth is, generally, the default future imagined by individuals, organizations, and especially businesses and governments. This archetype frames the future as being much like today, except that most everyone will have more material goods, more access to information, more options for travel, entertainment, and other niceties. Growth is the world model that has driven almost everything our civilization has done for the past three or four centuries. But growth may be the cause of humanity's, and possibly the planet's, ecosystem collapse. We could be consuming, spending, burning energy, and polluting to such a degree that we may be responsible for the downfall of our vital natural systems and our civilizational infrastructure. Collapse, the second archetype, is, unfortunately, an increasingly probable future scenario. The third archetype is discipline, or what might be called constraint. It is a future in which the threat of collapse is so great, and continued growth so unsustainable, that we decide to change our relationship to consumption and resource use. With this future, we do not grow or collapse, but order society in such a way as to live in a more or less steady state. This future would require a massive amount of social organization and enforcement. It is a future of limited choices, but relative stability. Finally, there is transformation. The story behind transformation takes on many forms, but the most common one is that of a high-tech revolution that changes our concept of who we are and how we live our lives. Transformations are the big shifts in history: from hunting and gathering to agriculture and domestication, or from the Dark Ages to the ages of exploration and renaissance. Many people, especially where I live in the Silicon Valley, believe that we are heading toward a world in which machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence. …" @default.
• W336976030 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W336976030 date "2010-10-01" @default.
• W336976030 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
• W336976030 title "A Quartet of Archetypes: Four Alternative Views Give Glimpses of the Future" @default.
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