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- W343433718 abstract "ISSN 1948-6596 news and update commentary The geographic consequences of climate change for migratory birds Modern global climate change can affect species in natural communities in a variety of ways. One outcome that has received broad attention within the biogeographical community is species’ range shifts. There is growing empirical evidence for shifts that, in the majority of cases, follow climate change expectations with species moving to higher latitudes or to higher elevations (Parmesan 2006). With the growing appreciation that species are indeed responding to climate change, there has been an expanding modeling effort to project the long-term geographical consequences. Specifi- cally, workers have developed models that use species’ climatic niches (or envelopes) within their current geographic range to forecast species’ dis- tributions under future climate-change scenarios (Pearson & Dawson 2003). When birds are considered in these investi- gations, shifts in breeding ranges in northern tem- perate-regions are often examined with little at- tention given to winter ranges in equatorial re- gions or the consequences of range shifts for mi- gratory routes and strategies. In many cases, this is due to simple data limitations: the most thor- ough occurrence information for birds is typically confined to breeding and non-breeding ranges in Europe and North America. Migration under cli- mate change has been an important topic of in- vestigation (Parmesan 2007); however, most analyses address questions related to phenology where data tends to be more prevalent. In a re- cent article in the Journal of Biogeography (Doswald et al. 2009), Nathalie Doswald and col- leagues applied climate envelope models to both the breeding and non-breeding ranges of 17 Euro- pean Sylvia warblers, a group of birds that are common residents and visitors to Europe. Doswald et al. (2009) extends the findings of ear- lier investigations (e.g., Huntley et al. 2006) by quantifying the geographical consequences of cli- mate change for migratory species, thus expand- ing the predictive breadth of recent modeling en- deavors and also our appreciation of the many challenges birds and other taxa will likely face un- der climate change. Migration is a common strategy for birds. To have enough energy to undertake long jour- neys, birds must build large quantities of fat re- serves. If climate change results in greater migra- tion distances, the viability of this phenomenon could be seriously challenged. Doswald et al. (2009) found that the majority of breeding ranges for the 17 Sylvia species were projected to shift northwards, but there was no evidence for a con- sistent directional shift with winter ranges. Thus, potential changes in migratory distances were, in most cases, a consequence of shifts in breeding ranges rather than winter ranges. Assuming spe- cies retain both breeding and non-breeding ranges and all individuals migrate in a similar fash- ion, migration distances were estimated to in- crease by an average of 413 km for trans-Saharan migrants and 201 km for resident and short- distance or partial migrants. Assuming increases in fuel requirements for longer migrations can be physiologically accommodated, these species are likely to require more time for feeding or richer food resources prior and during migration to achieve these longer distances. Alternatively, mi- gration behavior might diminish to the point where separate breeding and non-breeding ranges are no longer a necessity, particular for short-distance or partial migrants whose breeding and non-breeding ranges are located at higher latitudes. An additional pattern examined by Doswald et al. (2009) was the degree of range overlap be- tween the current and projected breeding and non-breeding ranges. These values were found to be highly variable among species with an overlap of 33% and 36% on average for breeding and non- breeding ranges, respectively. Regions of overlap can be seen as important transition zones, allow- ing populations to persist within their historical ranges, thus providing valuable time for species to respond to changing climatic conditions. They also frontiers of biogeography 1.1, 2009 — © 2009 the authors; journal compilation © 2009 The International Biogeography Society" @default.
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- W343433718 date "2009-01-01" @default.
- W343433718 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W343433718 title "commentary: The geographic consequences of climate change for migratory birds - eScholarship" @default.
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