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• W347935163 abstract "One aspect of population projections used for traffic modeling in small and medium sized cities and counties is that agencies seldom if ever go back to evaluate how accurate their long range projections have been. Typically once a new or revised set of projections are made, the old projections are quickly forgotten long before the horizon year is ever reached. This paper and presentation will provide a post horizon-year retrospective evaluation and analysis of a set of 20-year population projections I prepared in the early 1980’s for the Stanislaus Area Association of Governments when I was employed by Stanislaus County, California. These projections were important because they set new countywide population control totals, which were later disaggregated to the cities and to traffic analysis zones for land use and transportation planning. The population projections were prepared following the 1980 Decennial Census using three relatively independent methodologies, with several alternatives run for each. These methods can be described as 1) a trend extrapolation method that used past population levels and a simple regression model, 2) an employment based method, which combined employment projections with projections of future labor force participation rates to determine future population, and 3) a cohort component model, which utilized interstate and inter-county migration trends to project the net migration component. In using three different methodologies it was hoped that some consistent future population levels would emerge. This approach was successful in this regard. On the surface, it appears that the 20-year projections prepared in the early 1980’s were actually quite accurate. But this analysis will dig deeper into the data to try to determine if this accuracy was attained by the quality of the methods used or merely by random chance. This paper and presentation will look at the various factors that went into the three methodologies and compare assumptions with what actually transpired over the 20-year period. Some of these factors included employment growth, changes in labor force participation rates, net migration to Stanislaus County, and natural increase (fertility and survival rates). The impact of each of these factors on the accuracy of the projections will be evaluated. Projecting is a difficult business. Very seldom are we able to give true estimates or probabilities of the expected accuracy of our projections. This analysis is a once in a career opportunity to try to get a handle on this question of population projection accuracy. Hopefully this paper and presentation can add to a limited literature on the subject." @default.
• W347935163 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W347935163 date "2008-01-01" @default.
• W347935163 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
• W347935163 title "Retrospective Analysis of Population Projections – 25 Years Later" @default.
• W347935163 hasPublicationYear "2008" @default.
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