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- W367050404 abstract "Climate change is a well-studied subject but large uncertainties still exist in future projections. These uncertainties are even larger on future runoff projections at catchment scales due to the differences in local landscape factors. Continuous assessments are therefore needed to improve our understanding and increase our preparedness for the future. One way forward is to assess the impact of climate change on runoff with the new hydrological model PERSiST. PERSiST was calibrated to four study catchments that spread out along a south-north climate gradient of Sweden. The model well simulated the stream discharges with Nash-Sutcliffe values ranging from 0.55 to 0.76. The model was then driven by downscaled and bias-corrected weather data (2061–2090) from an ensemble of 15 Regional Climate Models. The runoff projections showed that the impact of climate change on runoff would differ across the catchments. All catchments would see an increase in annual runoff with the greatest increase in the northernmost catchment. The northernmost catchment would also see a likely decline in spring flood, a shift in timing of the spring flood from May to April and an increase in winter runoff. As a result of an increase in winter runoff, there could be a loss of seasonality. In the more southern catchments the present-day runoff was more evenly distributed during the year and the projected loss of seasonality was not as pronounced. The conclusion was that the impact of climate change on runoff would increase northward, due to the higher response to climate change in the northernmost catchments." @default.
- W367050404 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W367050404 date "2013-01-01" @default.
- W367050404 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W367050404 title "Assessing the impacts of climate change on runoff along a climatic gradient of Sweden using PERSiST" @default.
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