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• W367847319 abstract "The study proposes real exchange rate, exports, imports, trade balance/gross domestic product (GDP), foreign liabilities/foreign assets, domestic real interest rate, world oil prices, and government consumption/GDP as indicators to predict currency crises in emerging economies: Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey. We select 8 indicators from 5 different sectors: current account, fiscal sector, financial sector, world economy, and capital account. The results show that all crises were predictable. Furthermore, the study shows that Jordan could be due for another currency crisis in the near future. 1. Introduction Since the mid-1970s to the beginning-2000s the world has experienced many currency crises, especially in Asian emerging countries. Numerous empirical studies focus on Asian emerging countries currency crises with little attention to Middle Eastern countries. This study investigates currency crises in Three Middle Eastern emerging countries; Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey. In the late of 1980s many Middle Eastern emerging countries have a structural reform for their economies. The magnitude of the reform is similar to the ones occurring in Latin America and South East Asia. The new philosophy is based on having these countries implement economic programs that have similar goals even if they differ in their extensiveness. We limit the early warning indicators to real exchange rate, exports, imports, trade balance/gross domestic product (GDP), foreign liabilities/foreign assets, domestic real interest rate, world oil prices, and government consumption/GDP. We believe that they are the most relevant indicators for the economies of the tested countries. 1.1. The case of Egypt Egypt implemented extensive structural economic reforms during the 1990s. Key elements of the reform program were: structural adjustment financing through the International Monetary Fund (IMF)-World Bank, strong policy action to curb fiscal deficits and inflation, tax and policy changes, including large-scale privatization of state industries, and opening the economy to private investment. Another key part of Egypt's structural adjustment program in the 1990s was a currency pegged to the dollar, which functioned for a time, but there was a currency squeeze beginning as early as 1998, brought on by over-expenditure on large infrastructure projects during a time of diminishing tourism revenues due to the tourist massacre, higher oil prices, and a flood of cheap imports from East Asian countries trying to export their way out of crisis. Suddenly Egypt's currency was way overvalued. In 2001, the Egyptian Pound (EP) was allowed to drift down and in a series of devaluations and lost 32% of its value. In the middle of 2004 authorities allowing the EP to float freely resulting in a decrease of 35% of its value. Egypt typically runs a current account deficit; its financial account has not consistently been in surplus. It has in some years attracted as much as US$1.2 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI), FDI flows can be volatile: in 2001, only about US$500 million was received. Portfolio investment is not a significant source of foreign investment for Egypt because its bond and stock markets are at a relatively low level of development. International bank lending and deposit gathering and government borrowing and principal repayment have not provided a stable source of funding for the current account deficit either. The result has been that in most of the recent past, Egypt has had an overall deficit position in its balance of payments. The balance of payments deficits the country has been running have been financed by running down of its international reserves and by exceptional financing from the multilateral agencies like the World Bank and (IMF). 1.2. The case of Jordan Another example for structural reform in the Middle East is Jordan. Jordan has serious economic problems, in 1989 the government was forced to stop most debt payments and suspend rescheduling negotiations. …" @default.
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• W367847319 date "2006-09-01" @default.
• W367847319 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
• W367847319 title "Development of an Early Warning Model for Currency Crises in Emerging Economies: An Empirical Study among Middle Eastern Countries" @default.
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