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- W38260703 abstract "Over the last few decades demand for fresh water from the Euphrates-Tigris watershed has increased substantially, approaching (even exceeding in dry years) the total flow of the system. This situation leaves the area vulnerable to future changes in the water cycle. Here I present some analysis of GCM predictions for the region over the 21 century assuming emissions follow the IPCC scenario A2 (“business as usual”). Eighteen GCMs have submitted results for the A2 scenario to the Earth System Grid. The performance of the GCMs is assessed against observations collected from 2000 thru 2005. The ability to reproduce monthly precipitation and temperature over the Middle East varies considerably between models. The ensemble mean temperature increase over the 21 century is ~4oC. The ensemble mean precipitation decreases by ~25mm, however precipitation predictions are characterized by an increase in inter-model variation rather than a coherent ensemble trend, such that although the ensemble trend is a decrease, several models predict an increase in precipitation. Also presented are preliminary results of a regional climate modeling study investigating the impact of global warming on the Middle East. The region is modeled using MM5 run at 27km grid spacing and 23 levels in the vertical. Boundary conditions for the model are obtained from a CCSM3 (IPCC scenario A2) run simulating the 21 century. MM5 was run for three five year periods starting in 2000, 2048 and 2095. Results show the largest temperature increase occurring in Iran during summer, along with some cooling on the Eastern Black Sea coast. Results for precipitation indicate drying over Southern Turkey and the Eastern Mediterranean and wetting over much of the rest of the domain, particularly Iran. Ignoring man-made reservoirs, the regional model predicts a significant increase in the runoff produced in the Euphrates-Tigris watershed." @default.
- W38260703 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W38260703 date "2005-12-01" @default.
- W38260703 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
- W38260703 title "Impact of Global Warming on the Euphrates-Tigris Watershed" @default.
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