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- W39304820 abstract "William Niskanen (2002) estimated a Phillips curve for the United States using annual 1960-2000 data. By adding one-year lagged terms in unemployment and inflation, he was able to show that this familiar equation is misspecified. In his improved specification, Niskanen found that the immediate impact of inflation is to reduce unemployment, confirming the traditional understanding of the Phillips-curve relationship, but also finding that after an interval as short as one year inflation has generally been followed by increased unemployment. Though Niskanen was perhaps unaware of it, his results lend strong support to the Austrian model of the business cycle. In that model, credit expansion results in a temporary but unsustainable expansion. Unemployment is lowered in the short run, but once the policy-induced malinvestment is recognized, total output and income will be permanently reduced, and unemployment will increase. Beyond reinterpreting Niskanen’s results, this article estimates a similar model using an expanded monthly 1948-2009 dataset. In particular, the article presents an improved specification with a statistically better-motivated and more-encompassing lag structure. Insights and cautions suggested by Reichel (2004), who estimated vector-error-correction (VEC) models for a variety of different countries, and by Moghaddam and Jenson (2008), who estimated a respecified error-correction-model (ECM), are also addressed." @default.
- W39304820 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W39304820 creator A5069732939 @default.
- W39304820 date "2011-01-19" @default.
- W39304820 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W39304820 title "An Austrian Rehabilitation of the Phillips Curve" @default.
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