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- W39367789 abstract "The focus of this paper is on some ''practical'' issues associated with selecting a discount rate for project analysis. After resolving important conceptual issues such as how to account for project risk or whether a social perspective or private perspective is appropriate, the analyst usually calculates a discount rate based on historical rate of return data. This is not a cut and dried procedure because of considerable variance in historical rate of return data. In this study interest rate data from 1957 to 1982 were used to generate 1080 observations on how a discount rate is typically calculated. Analysis of the data determined the contribution of variance due to interest rate series, the period of the calculation, and the procedure for deflating nominal interest rates to real rates. One result of the analysis is that given the 5 to 15 year time spans for which discount rates in this study were based, the ending year of the calculation is quite important. Discount rates over the period for which observations were generated were not particularly stable. This might be caused by the significant and sometimes rapid changes in the rate of inflation combined with the inability to capture inflation expectations. Ifmore » the objective of a discount rate calculation is to find a rate that reflects a stable underlying rate of return for project evaluation, 5 to 15 years may be too short unless inflation expectations are well known.« less" @default.
- W39367789 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W39367789 date "1986-08-01" @default.
- W39367789 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W39367789 title "Factors of variance in calculating a discount rate for project analysis" @default.
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