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- W39451621 abstract "This paper investigates the price stabilisation process under the policy commitment to an exchange rate based programme. I develop a formal model which allows to quantify the credibility role in the price stabilisation process and assess the extent to which the economic fundamentals can aect the reputation of policymakers. I decompose devaluation expecta- tions into a probability that authorities are not precommitted with certainty to preannounced policy and a probability that worsened economic fundamentals force authorities to renege on the chosen …xed exchange rate policy. The model is then estimated using Russian data for the IMF stabilisation programme, preceding the rouble collapse in August 1998. I …nd that past fundamentals and reputation are signi…cant determinants of the devaluation expecta- tions of the forward-looking private sector; the disin‡ation in Russia was fast partly because it was credible." @default.
- W39451621 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W39451621 date "2002-01-01" @default.
- W39451621 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W39451621 title "Credibility of the Russian Stabilisation Programme in 1995-98 ¤" @default.
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