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- W41141968 abstract "This paper examines three possible sources of de-industrialization in an open economy: monetary disinflation, an increase in the international price of oil, and a domestic oil discovery. The analysis is conducted using a model that incorporates different speeds of adjustment in goods and asset markets; domestic goods prices respond only sluggishly to excess demand while the exchange rate (and hence the price of imported goods) adjusts quickly. Monetary disinflation leads to reduced real balances, higher interest rates, and a lower nominal exchange rate. This causes a real appreciation and a decline in domestic manufacturing output in the short run. An increase in world oil prices can create similar effects even for a country that is a net oil exporter. Domestic oil discoveries, though finite, generate permanent income effects in demand that last beyond the productive life of the new oil reserve. Initially, current income is above permanent income, leading to an improvement in the trade account. This is eventually reversed when permanent income exceeds current income. A wide variety of output response patterns is possible. 13 references, 8 figures." @default.
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- W41141968 date "1980-01-01" @default.
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- W41141968 title "Oil, disinflation, and export competitiveness: a model of the Dutch Disease. [Monograph]" @default.
- W41141968 hasPublicationYear "1980" @default.
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